Research on Short-Time Wind Speed Prediction in Mountainous Areas Based on Improved ARIMA Model

In rugged mountain areas, the lateral aerodynamic force and lift caused by strong winds are main reasons for overturning of trains destruction buildings structures along railroad line. Therefore, it is important to build a wind alarm system line, reasonable accurate short-time forecast basis it. this research, two methods constructive function time-series decomposition proposed pre-process input speed periodic in mountainous areas. Then, improved Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model was established through steps white noise test, data stationarity recognition, order determination. Finally, effectiveness prediction examined. The results research showed that rational choice processing functions has large impact on results. accuracy ARIMA paper better than traditional Seasonal model, can quickly accurately realize line mountains. addition, verified its universality different places.